Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the early Republican primaries and caucuses, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he’s only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It’s fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can’t talk about these issues while there’s still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn’t want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it’s like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he’s a completely different person off camera
I really don’t think it will be enough this time. And it’s fucking terrifying
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don’t follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn’t going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I’m not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don’t worry. If young people don’t like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu’s genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking “won’t that alienate them and cause them to stay home?” Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
The game isn’t to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.
They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don’t need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.
A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don’t go.
Keep in mind that it’s still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn’t capable of campaigning for a long time…
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it’s not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven’t watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it’s not.
Didn’t have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn’t visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it’s more than I thought we’d get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the “red wave.”
Will that hold? I don’t know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don’t seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don’t see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it’s not all roses.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.
You make it sound like something they couldn’t do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That’s the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC “donor sharing” program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn’t just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I’m not.
Sure, there’s a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don’t think he’s the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Depends if the Democratic leadership decides to go for we can totally flip Texas for reals this time AGAIN. Ignoring all of the increasingly purple formerly hard blue states in the rust belt.
It’s questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.
He doesn’t have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn’t count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn’t win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn’t count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That’s it.
Now, since we aren’t pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he’s only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It’s fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can’t talk about these issues while there’s still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn’t want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it’s like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he’s a completely different person off camera
I really don’t think it will be enough this time. And it’s fucking terrifying
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don’t follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn’t going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Got a source for that “everyone was expecting a Romney win” thing?
Yeah, an in person speech by Angus Reid.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
That was an in person speech I attended by the unofficial god of polling, Angus Reid.
Don’t know what you heard in a speech, but Angus Reid’s own organization accurately predicted the popular vote that year:
https://angusreid.org/electoral-record-continued/
Saying things like “Well, they’re totally different off camera” sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn’t happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates…
Neither are doing primary debates, and there’s no way a general debate happens.
We won’t see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they’ll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn’t have to debate.
In Trump’s case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It’s tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I’d be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I’m not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don’t worry. If young people don’t like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu’s genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking “won’t that alienate them and cause them to stay home?” Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
I dont think they understood your sarcasm
I know they did.
The game isn’t to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.
They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don’t need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.
A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don’t go.
Keep in mind that it’s still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You’re right…
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn’t capable of campaigning for a long time…
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it’s not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
Yes, everyone knows with a capable, young, intelligent, and capable candidate, the trick is to hide them to the last second as a surprise.
So then hiding Biden has nothing to do with his lack of ability.
This is totally normal!
That’s why no one is bothering to talk about the election right now and political stump speeches and advertising doesn’t start till Halloween.
Wasn’t Biden on Seth myers literally last night?
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven’t watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it’s not.
Didn’t have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn’t visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it’s more than I thought we’d get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
not doing interviews? he told us he likes chocolate chip cookies. what more do you want?
God that’s fucking depressing! Thanks for putting it in perspective.
If it makes you feel better, he killed his own boombooms with his demented policy choices
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Without vote by mail, they won’t show up to the same degree. Trump’s vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That’s not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden can’t win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
Michigan became a wierd place last week.
On top of GOP issues, a few dems started fighting against biden for the primary
GOP sinking means MI probably turns blue, right?
Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the “red wave.”
Will that hold? I don’t know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don’t seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don’t see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it’s not all roses.
I’ve been watching and it’s absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don’t see how that can be right.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.
That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.
You make it sound like something they couldn’t do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That’s the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC “donor sharing” program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn’t just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
Details and specifics matter
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
I could copy paste what I told them, but it’s probably easier for you to just scroll down since it sounds like you already read it
It’s neat how we kept DeJoy in charge at the post office after his fuckery in the last election.
They are when you track them over time. In each of these states, support for Trump is growing, not shrinking.
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I’m not.
Sure, there’s a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don’t think he’s the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Assume he is and act accordingly. Otherwise we’ll ll have the the rest of our lives to regret it.
Depends if the Democratic leadership decides to go for we can totally flip Texas for reals this time AGAIN. Ignoring all of the increasingly purple formerly hard blue states in the rust belt.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about “genocide” in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Scare quotes around genocide? Really?
It’s questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.