Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the early Republican primaries and caucuses, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
That was an in person speech I attended by the unofficial god of polling, Angus Reid.
Don’t know what you heard in a speech, but Angus Reid’s own organization accurately predicted the popular vote that year:
https://angusreid.org/electoral-record-continued/