Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the early Republican primaries and caucuses, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the “red wave.”
Will that hold? I don’t know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don’t seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don’t see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it’s not all roses.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.
You make it sound like something they couldn’t do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That’s the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC “donor sharing” program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn’t just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I’m not.
Sure, there’s a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don’t think he’s the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Depends if the Democratic leadership decides to go for we can totally flip Texas for reals this time AGAIN. Ignoring all of the increasingly purple formerly hard blue states in the rust belt.
It’s questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Without vote by mail, they won’t show up to the same degree. Trump’s vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That’s not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden can’t win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
Michigan became a wierd place last week.
On top of GOP issues, a few dems started fighting against biden for the primary
GOP sinking means MI probably turns blue, right?
Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the “red wave.”
Will that hold? I don’t know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don’t seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don’t see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it’s not all roses.
I’ve been watching and it’s absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don’t see how that can be right.
Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.
That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.
You make it sound like something they couldn’t do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That’s the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC “donor sharing” program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn’t just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
Details and specifics matter
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
I could copy paste what I told them, but it’s probably easier for you to just scroll down since it sounds like you already read it
No need, it’s just as pointless as it was the first time when you responded to him.
It’s neat how we kept DeJoy in charge at the post office after his fuckery in the last election.
They are when you track them over time. In each of these states, support for Trump is growing, not shrinking.
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I’m not.
Sure, there’s a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don’t think he’s the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Assume he is and act accordingly. Otherwise we’ll ll have the the rest of our lives to regret it.
Depends if the Democratic leadership decides to go for we can totally flip Texas for reals this time AGAIN. Ignoring all of the increasingly purple formerly hard blue states in the rust belt.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about “genocide” in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Scare quotes around genocide? Really?
It’s questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.