Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the early Republican primaries and caucuses, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don’t follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn’t going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don’t follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn’t going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Got a source for that “everyone was expecting a Romney win” thing?
Yeah, an in person speech by Angus Reid.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
That was an in person speech I attended by the unofficial god of polling, Angus Reid.
Don’t know what you heard in a speech, but Angus Reid’s own organization accurately predicted the popular vote that year:
https://angusreid.org/electoral-record-continued/