I understand the historical significance since the nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War.

Back then, and for perhaps the middle part of the 20th century, there was a threat of a government in exile claiming mainland China. Historically, then, there was your impetus for invasion.

However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.

Another reason people give: control the supply of chips. Yet, wouldn’t the Fabs, given their sensitive nature, be likely to be significantly destroyed in the process of an invasion?

Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?

People mention that taking Taiwan would be a breakout from the “containment” imposed by the ring of U.S. allies in the region.

Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.

So what is it then? Is it just for national pride and glory? Is it to create a legacy for their leadership? The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

Anyway, appreciate your opinions thanks!

  • lemmylommy@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.

    Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.

    So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.

    The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?

    Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.

    • mnemonicmonkeys@sh.itjust.works
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      7 days ago

      Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak.

      Keep in mind that China is struggling as well. Their debt problems are several times worse than the US, so they could suffer a major recession within the next few years if a significant disruption like war happens.

    • BrainInABox@lemmy.ml
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      6 days ago

      You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west,

      Least chauvinistic .worlder.

  • foggianism@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    From China’s geopolitical standpoint:

    Taiwan lies between China and the Pacific Ocean.

    Taiwan is part of the First Island Chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) — many of these are U.S.-aligned or host U.S. bases.

    Control over Taiwan would:

    Give China greater military and surveillance reach into the Pacific.

    Potentially allow it to break out of U.S.-aligned containment.

    Give it more control over critical sea lanes and access to deeper waters (vital for its navy).

    • Etterra@discuss.online
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      6 days ago

      Also it’s makes their metaphorical dicks hard. Maybe their literal dicks too, idk.

  • surph_ninja@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    The premise of your question is all wrong. It centers western control of Taiwan as a natural status quo, and so paints every challenge of that control as a provocation or threat.

    Advocating for Taiwan’s sovereignty is not the same as advocating for Taiwan’s continued fealty to the west.

  • Justin@lemmy.jlh.name
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    7 days ago

    Lots of good points, but one aspect that people haven’t mentioned yet is that Taiwan is part of the “first island chain”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

    If the PRC conquers Taiwan, then it makes it much harder for the west to blockade the PRC in future conflicts.

    Though technically, it is much more important to control the strait of Malacca than Taiwan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma

    • MuskyMelon@lemmy.world
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      The island chain strategy is the exact reason why China desires Taiwan. If anything, it’s a desire not to be blockaded.

      It’s also the reason why China has been trying to dominate the South China Sea because that’s its only outlet to open seas.

      • Justin@lemmy.jlh.name
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        7 days ago

        Like I said, the messaging around the PRC’s imperialistic ambitions in Taiwan goes far beyond the concern around blockades. It’s just interesting from a military/strategic perspective.

        Worth noting that even Russia has not been blockaded after it’s imperialistic annexation of Ukraine.

  • Semjaza@lemmynsfw.com
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    6 days ago

    Honestly, it’s really mainly historical clout.

    Failing to conquer Taiwan was seen as the one thing Mao failed to do, and a strong leader managing it could make a claim to have surpassed Mao as great leaders of China.

    The PRC is a massive fan of historical determinism and narrative might. Reunification would be a massive win for the pride and honour of the leader who did it. It’s also a big thing for the average PRC citizen, they don’t want war - but have had a lifetime of propaganda about it and are (somewhat rightly) worried about US aggression.

  • iknowitwheniseeit@lemmynsfw.com
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    6 days ago

    One argument against democracy in China is that it is incompatible with Chinese culture.

    Looking at Taiwan having a very successful democracy with Chinese culture is problematic for the Chinese Communist Party for that reason.

    • surph_ninja@lemmy.world
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      What are you talking about? They have elections all the time, and the workers exercise a tremendous amount of power.

  • BotsRuinedEverything@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    In 100 years, long after the United States has broken into Baltic states, there will be a reunification movement and people will ask “why do they want to invade Texas?”. There will be politicians who’s whole political careers will be built on the promise they can make the United States one country again. Understand this and you will understand China and Taiwan.

    • crimsonpoodle@pawb.socialOP
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      I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it. So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.

      • DeathByBigSad@sh.itjust.works
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        I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it.

        Taiwan was under Qing Rule until the Japanese took it. Then when Imperial Japan lost, they gave Taiwan back to ROC in 1945.

        So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.

        No, it’s be more like Japan taking Hawaii during WW2, then Japan loses and the US regains it, then immediately after, the US has a civil war between people who believe in the constitution vs a neo-nazi insurgency. The neo-nazi insurgency wins and the US government then flees to Hawaii. Then the neo-nazi insurgent-government in continental US is trying to regain Hawaii, while those who fled to Hawaii is trying to declare a “Republic of Hawaii” in order to preserve their democracy.

  • IndustryStandard@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    The giant American military base next to China falls.

    Also Taiwan claims to be part of China. And America claims Taiwan is part of China.

  • reksas@sopuli.xyz
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    7 days ago

    Even if taiwans technology manufacturing gets destroyed in the invasion, it’s still major part of western world’s component infrastructure. They can also just rebuild. China gaining control over that or even just denying it to west would make china internationally more powerful no matter how it goes.

    Most likely that isnt the only reason they want taiwan, but i dont believe it isnt one of them.

  • OBJECTION!@lemmy.ml
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    It’s a staging area for the US that’s very close to China, so there’s that reason strategically. But really, there’s not a lot of reason to which is why they haven’t done so already. China is, as far as I’m aware, perfectly happy with the traditional US approach towards Taiwan, a policy of “strategic ambiguity” that doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan as independent (while informally supporting them) and which has kept the peace for many decades. China does not gain much from provoking a military confrontation with the US, as things stand, China is winning the peace through economic development while the US is going all in on the military. By maintaining the status quo, China can leave the issue open and kick the can down the road, maintaining the possibility that someday in the future they may be in a strong enough position to press the issue.

    Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?

    That’s exactly what they’ve been doing. That article mentions that they’ve actually recruited 3000 engineers from Taiwan’s chip industry to help develop their own chips.

    Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.

    Taiwan’s stance is defensive, but the same isn’t necessarily true of the US, which operates in Taiwan. The US has recently started throwing around rhetoric and shifting spending focuses towards treating a hot war with China as a serious possibility, insane as it may be. This is (hopefully) just bluster to justify defense spending, but I’m not at all convinced that if China sent a carrier to the Middle East, the US would not retaliate. If anything, they’re looking for a reason.

  • clutchtwopointzero@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    china is a bit like Yugoslavia before the end: lots of different ethnicities being forced to be together. letting a country made up of Chinese people exist in parallel to china keeps a flame of hope alight for those 51 non-Han Chinese ethnicities that were forced to be part of continental china. and China has struggled immensely with multitudes of local kingdoms and warlords throughout its history so it is afraid as its people are very aware of this past through historical dramas

    • Ilixtze@lemmy.ml
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      6 days ago

      Oh boy! i can imagine what are your opinions on “lots of ethnicities forced to be together”

        • seaQueue@lemmy.world
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          I mean, the melting pot never meant a blend of races or cultures. It meant immigrants were melted down and out came an Americanized person who fit in with the existing culture. So the application in China is almost exactly spot on, only you’re assimilating into Han Chinese culture in this case. Same shit, different continent.

  • MrMakabar@slrpnk.net
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    7 days ago

    The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

    China is not invading Taiwan. However if it comes to a war with the US, then it really has to take out Taiwan. It is just too close to the mainland, allowing for easy bombing and missile attacks, while als being able to cut off shipping from the mainland. Obviously the US likes that a lot, as it makes war against the US much more costly for China.

    At the same time leaders often make horrible decisions. Just look at the US invading Iraq and Afghanistan or Russia invading Ukraine. Clearly not good wars for the countries invading, but they still did it.

  • ComradeSharkfucker@lemmy.ml
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    7 days ago

    Taiwan is a fantastic launching point for an invasion of China and Taiwan has decent relations with the US and other capitalist states who have an interest in opposing China. Yk how people say Israel is an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle east? Taiwan could be like that for China if the western powers decided to use it as such. There is already a US military base there. Imagine how the US would react if Cuba had a Chinese military base? This is the main material reason.

    Chip manufacturing could also play a role but it is a minor one compared to this.

  • aeronmelon@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    Same thing they gained from invading Hong Kong, they think it belongs to them.

    Or as one of my old friends told me while playing Final Fantasy 12; the only legitimate reason to wage war against another country - land.

    Hong Kong is already part of the Chinese mainland and was already kinda part of China, but Taiwan is a geographically strategic location that puts both Koreas, the Philippines, & Japan in a tougher position. Even without war it would make trade and travel in the Pacific much harder.

    • mikezane@lemmy.world
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      7 days ago

      They didn’t invade Hong Kong, it was given back to China from the British after the 99 year lease expired. The violence in Hong Kong was to destroy the concept of democracy among the citizens there.