The Russians are aware, and this won’t alter the fact that Ukraine has lost the war and won’t be able to re-arm in a pause. Russia has already stated many times previously that they aren’t willing to accept a ceasefire — why should they when they’re the winning side?
Zelensky has by no means lost the war, short of the US actually attacking them, which is very unlikely. Especially since half the stalling speeches while the GoP lost the CR vote today were GoP senators talking about backing Ukraine against Russia.
The EU is giving Zelensky better weapons than Russia can field, but production is slow or still ramping up. Russia has a ton of production, for shit weapons. Every passing moment moves advantage more towards Ukraine as more weapon system and insulation against Trump/Starlink comes online. No matter how the cease fire ends up, Russia is on a path to defeat by the end of the year. By next year Putin will be leveraging his house to pay Xi back his loans. And no matter who wins, China wins.
Europe can’t even produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M. And Russia has been massively out producing Europe in terms of air-launched cruise missiles so don’t bring up Storm Shadow (Kh-101 is longer range than Storm Shadow anyways) or other similar weapon systems.
Russia produced more T-90Ms (a very good tank mind you) last year than the amount of tanks the entire German military has. Production was 20-30 per month last year but this has likely since doubled. Losses for T-90Ms have been low as per Oryx with production massively outpacing losses (one to two months of production last year was enough to replace yearly T-90M losses).
Even T-72B3 has a superior fire control system than the forty year old system used on the Leopard 2A6.
The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. People forget that tanks are not the only weapon that armies have. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a few weeks before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.
Most of Russian Armed Forces aren’t even in Ukraine, majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia.
Hence why casualties amongst Russian professionals are low:
Motorized Rifles: 6,457
VDV: 3,257
Naval Infantry: 1,305
Tank Crew: 1,806
Artillery: 851
Special Forces: 736
Engineering: 291
Navy: 291
VVS: 265
Other: 957
Total: 16,216
Source: MediaZona
For comparison:
US losses from 2003-2005 mainly against insurgents: 5175
Source: Defense Casualty Analysis System
In comparison, Russia had just annihilated tens of thousands of Ukraine’s troops from the most elite units at Kursk oblast (up to 70K albeit take that number with a grain of salt as MoD numbers on both sides, can’t be trusted).
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The Russians are aware, and this won’t alter the fact that Ukraine has lost the war and won’t be able to re-arm in a pause. Russia has already stated many times previously that they aren’t willing to accept a ceasefire — why should they when they’re the winning side?
Zelensky has by no means lost the war, short of the US actually attacking them, which is very unlikely. Especially since half the stalling speeches while the GoP lost the CR vote today were GoP senators talking about backing Ukraine against Russia.
The EU is giving Zelensky better weapons than Russia can field, but production is slow or still ramping up. Russia has a ton of production, for shit weapons. Every passing moment moves advantage more towards Ukraine as more weapon system and insulation against Trump/Starlink comes online. No matter how the cease fire ends up, Russia is on a path to defeat by the end of the year. By next year Putin will be leveraging his house to pay Xi back his loans. And no matter who wins, China wins.
Europe can’t even produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M. And Russia has been massively out producing Europe in terms of air-launched cruise missiles so don’t bring up Storm Shadow (Kh-101 is longer range than Storm Shadow anyways) or other similar weapon systems.
Russia produced more T-90Ms (a very good tank mind you) last year than the amount of tanks the entire German military has. Production was 20-30 per month last year but this has likely since doubled. Losses for T-90Ms have been low as per Oryx with production massively outpacing losses (one to two months of production last year was enough to replace yearly T-90M losses).
Even T-72B3 has a superior fire control system than the forty year old system used on the Leopard 2A6.
The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. People forget that tanks are not the only weapon that armies have. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a few weeks before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.
Most of Russian Armed Forces aren’t even in Ukraine, majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia.
Hence why casualties amongst Russian professionals are low:
Motorized Rifles: 6,457
VDV: 3,257
Naval Infantry: 1,305
Tank Crew: 1,806
Artillery: 851
Special Forces: 736
Engineering: 291
Navy: 291
VVS: 265
Other: 957
Total: 16,216
Source: MediaZona
For comparison:
US losses from 2003-2005 mainly against insurgents: 5175
Source: Defense Casualty Analysis System
In comparison, Russia had just annihilated tens of thousands of Ukraine’s troops from the most elite units at Kursk oblast (up to 70K albeit take that number with a grain of salt as MoD numbers on both sides, can’t be trusted).