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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • An important detail is that advanced western weapons are restricted to operations near our within the recognized borders if Ukraine. The arsenals, refineries, factories, and other strategic targets inside actual Russian territory have been hit with Ukrainian weapons. Most are relatively low payload drones, with some targets being serviced by Neptune land attack variants, which is definitely more advanced than anything in the Iranian arsenal for example. But I think the point stands that relatively cheap and simple systems have provided outsized results in the Ukrainian conflict.

    The reason there are warning signs for Israel is because of the sheer economy of drone bombing. When Iran launched over a hundred drones, and only three hit, the media had a chuckle. I’m sure the IDF and the American planners supporting them looked very nervously at the estimated 2.4 billion USD worth of ordinance deployed during the defence. Why do you think Ukraine and Russia are building cheap drones to kill other cheap drones. It’ll be interesting to watch.









  • My read on what he and others were concerned about was that DA Origins introduced an aesthetic of low fantasy, dark and medieval themes. Many felt, including him, that the new characters felt like very generic MOBA-style designs that didn’t feel particularly at home in the DA world they hoped to see. Since some channels have gotten to play the game now the outlook seems to be changing with some creators saying the trailers and released material did a poor job of showing the overall art direction. Also, it seems fun, that helps. Keep in mind, a healthy concern over Bioware is very warranted these days.



  • This is a good article that deeply examines Trump’s use of grandiose and unsupported claims, made up “facts”, and the difficulty in framing and reacting to it experienced by media and politicians. I don’t think dumbing down the wording to “Trump lies” will do anything to improve it. The entire premise and text of the article takes it as given that Trump lies so frequently and thoroughly that it transcends being a liar and becomes an alternative reality his followers have bought into. If you’re worried they’re not calling him out, you should read it.




  • I think this is pretty accurate. It would also be understandable if the US wantt a very active partner in the very obvious crimes against humanity. The overall colonial land appropriation that Israel is built on, and the general apartheid system Palestinians are subjected to is one thing. The emergency transfer of munitions which will be used to commit war crimes within days is way more acute. It’s tough to watch.



  • While there obviously are narratives in media, the Biden situation is very interesting to me. Biden is an 81 year-old man. The job he was in the running for is high stress and very important. The media reported on the obvious and completely understandable concerns that voters and politicians had with his candidacy. Given the enormous stakes for countries like mine, outside but influenced by the US, our media also reported on the very real confusion and concern that our citizens had. Trying to say it is some kind of hit job seems to massively oversimplify things.


  • I have seen that is one of the types under consideration, but I have a few reasons to think it is poorly suited to the stated goals of the procurement as I have read it.

    • It is a coastal defence boat, it is roughly 1/2 the tonnage of the KSS-III type from Korea. This limits it’s capabilities in the large patrol areas Canada is looking to operate. Being designed to operate primarily in the Baltic and other bodies of water off European coasts, it is less well adapted to the large expanses of the Pacific, where Canada will be looking for deployments.

    -While the technology transfer is a positive value for the potential contract, my understanding is that Korea is also open to this type of structure. More importantly, from my reading of the procurement, the goal is to focus on an “off-the-shelf” approach. The focus will be on acquiring vessels rapidly from the existing manufacturer with minimal specific changes for Canadian service. Hanwa Ocean, the builder, has moved over the past months to begin working with Canadian partners to get the process underway https://babcockcanada.com/babcock-and-hanwha-ocean-sign-a-technical-cooperation-agreement-for-the-canadian-patrol-submarine-project/ . This readiness to move quickly could shave years off the time needed to get the first hull in service.

    -Due to it’s smaller size and coastal defence role, the type 214 does not have VLS on board. This is a significant miss in capability, I have some armchair geopolitical reasons for that which I’ll blather about in a moment, but generally this limits the mission types the submarine can accomplish. It would likely lead to Canada deploying ROK developed cruise and ballistic missiles giving the boats a whole new mission envelope that would allow greater impact if supporting shore defences against landing for example.

    Into the “just my opinion man” section, or the even more of my opinion I guess! We are at a transitional state in Canada, and it’s a state we share most closely with our allies in the Pacific. It isn’t possible to ignore the recent SCOTUS ruling in the US. After listening to federal lawyers, and seeing the dissenting views from the justices, America is only a democracy insofar as nobody is currently using the unrestricted personal authority granted by the highest court. Continuing to base our sovereignty and continued liberal democracy on the support of a nation in that political situation is very shortsighted. ROK and Japan are two other nations that may be feeling a similar concern. Without a large entity and a geographical cluster like the EU to rely on, we are nations that have over-relied on the US for protection, that always has come at a cost of policy pressure and whatnot, but how will that pressure be wielded going forward? As a platform, the KSS-III type allows for options in the future which may seem very far away or outside of the Canadian mindset. Ultimately, it is a stealthy patrol submarine, which in a geopolitical pinch, can provide Canada with the only continuously effective deterrence known to prevent loss of sovereignty. Canada helped develop nuclear weapons, and operated them until 1984. In my opinion the world is moving in a direction that could leave us very alone and vulnerable to multiple larger authoritarian states, we could ramp up and spend billions to equip more units and build defences, but none of that brings us to parity. Citizens in ROK recently responded to polling indicating a majority support the development of nuclear deterrent there. Obviously I don’t think this will happen, but I do think that Canada would be very wise to acquire systems going forward that diversify our sources away from potentially untrustworthy nations. Also, keep options open. Shit’s not going well.


  • As far as I can tell the KSS-III class of subs from ROK would be the frontrunner. Last year Babcock, the company that provides maintenance for our current subs, signed a contract to cooperate on the deal with Hanwa Ocean. It’s one of the best conventional subs, it has 6xVLS with the next block stretched and supposed to feature 10xVLS. Also, it’s in production, which could mean relatively quick turnaround once they were ordered. The fact that it can deploy the Hyunmoo 4-4 ballistic missile is also a pretty big deal. If Canada were to be faced with a hypothetical scenario of a powerful belligerent dictatorship, stealthy submarines with ballistic missiles could provide interesting options for credible deterrence.