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There’s a lot of FUD with this news, but it needs some facts to determine the impact.
- This is a ban on work use, not personal use.
- The central government already had restrictions in place since 2020. Since the start of 2020, Apple’s share price has grown 120%.
- Apple’s share of the Chinese market is only 18%
- The “economically active” population of China is 780m and only 56m (7.2%) work in state-owned organisations [Gov metrics].
And this is why’s Apple’s share price has only gone down by 5%, losing only 2 weeks of gains.
I agree that direct impact of the ban on Apple sales will likely be negligible, but I do think that there could be ripple effects both in China and other countries. And of course, 18% of a market the size of China is still pretty huge in absolute terms. So, it’s not apocalyptic news for Apple by any stretch, but it likely will have visible negative impact going forward.