“Nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard,” Sun said.
China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain a no first use policy. Russia and the United States have the world’s biggest nuclear arsenals.
The French will never agree.
Their stance has always been, if France is threatened we will use every weapon in our arsenal.
They do not have end the world stocks of nukes like the US or Russia so their attitude is, “Fuck with us and we will end you.”
That is obviously fake news the libs and MAGAs told me Chyyyyna bad!
While I don’t think it bears much on how reasonable it is to suggest nuclear powers agree to never strike first, China’s arsenal is uniquely well designed for this kind of strategy. They employ zero static sites, unlike the US and Russia, relying on mobile launchers, subs and bombers. This makes them tactically poised for a retaliatory strike as they don’t have as much of the risk of losing their launch sites in a first strike. The US doctrine of preliminary strike in the event a nuclear attack seems likely is designed to protect their ability to launch at all.
While this kind of treaty would be slightly “advantageous” to China, it’s only because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy in mind from the get go while Russia and the US would have to adapt and convert their arsenal.
Russia also maintains a no first strike policy, unless that changed since I last got stuck in a rabbit hole about nuclear policy. The US is the only major country in the world to maintain a first strike policy with nuclear weapons that I know of.
Kind of? They call it that sometimes but it doesn’t look like a true no first use policy in the same vein as China’s and India’s. Putin also threatens nuclear weapons if NATO troops were to get involved in Ukraine, and openly questions the policy.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/europe/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-intl/index.html
I’m not sure any nuclear country would stick to these policies if they truly faced an existential threat, whether that threat was nuclear or not. Russia’s policy has a carve out for any existential threat including conventional weapons. US and Russian policies are pretty close, basically okay to use for any existential threat. Doesn’t hurt to try and negotiate more no first use policies and reinforce the norm though.
Looks like the UK, France, and Pakistan also lack no first use policies.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use
As far as I can tell the article is correct, China and India are the only current nuclear powers with true no first use policies. If that’s incorrect happy to learn more though. Israel not on here cause officially not a nuclear power, but hey we weren’t born yesterday.
Wow great info, thanks so much for doing all that legwork! It makes sense that Putin would put less stock into the policy than did his predecessors, because while the leaked Soviet archives show the USSR was genuinely terrified of nuclear war and mostly built up in response to US expansion of nuclear programs, I feel like Putin sees it more as a tool for intimidation.
I can tell if China is worried about current Russia or a future US under Trump.
This is directed to the US, UK, France, and Pakistan.
China and india already have no-first-use policies. Russia inherited one from the USSR, which was dissolved when the west coup’d them and immiserated their people. Russia’s lack of a no-first-use policy is directed at the guys who represent an existential threat to them.
“Russia makes constant nuclear threats and doesn’t have a no first use policy, but it’s totally entirely the fault and moral obligation of the us. Totes definitely.”
lol
Russia makes far fewer nuclear threats than the US who flies stealth bombers right up to the border of North Korea every year and is developing new ICBMs.
But yes Russia’s nuclear policy, including their revocation of no-first-use in the 90s is in response to the US’s actions.
The current situation is especially ironic because Yeltsin, the guy who executed the coup and burned parliament, and removed the No-First-Use policy, and Putin, were both picked by the US.
Fewer nuclear threats, lmao.
Names a different country and dismisses explicit nuclear escalations, lmao
Names someone who is not currently leader of Russia, and hasn’t been for 24 years, lmao
Imagines that the Soviet Union didn’t have internal issues except those caused by the us, lmao
This is your brain on tankie. “The nuclear power has no agency to make better choices whatsoever, how could the west do this”
Gosh why do I just not feel bad for poor ol putin here? Real head scratcher.
Lmao.
I am explaining history and context of Russia’s no-first-use policy and the specific instances that caused them to change it and how the leaders who changed it remain in power. You are dismissing it because I am not starting and ending at “russia bad, does bad things”
The nuclear power isn’t making worse choices, they’re responding to external and internal circumstances.
Agreements? Concentions? Those never get broken.
Geneva anyone?
China and India are the only responsible players on the world stage and it shows.
Cojncidentally, they’re also the two nuclear-armed countries who have been involved in the fewest conflicts, and who’s conflicts have been resolved the most quickly.
this is largely symbolic, it doesnt change anything
