my bet is: as long as we need to completely transition to renewable transport, because everything we eat, build and wear needs to be transported and most of us don’t work from home or study from home:
oil prices are high because that’s what putin can use as leverage against the developed world after his failed annexation of Ukraine and it’s clear he’d rather die than accept Ukraine is an independent country. Global warming makes a transition to renewable energy inescapable and even if putin died today and Russia opened the taps again, it would only slow down the transition.
But holy shit, it’s gonna be hard and expensive, it’s going to take decades and every populist politician of both left and right is going to fight it. My bet is 2 decades.
What do you think?
(We’re talking US only, right?) Isn’t the inflation already at 3.5%? The goal is usually around 2%. If the government wants they can get it to 2% by taxing extra corporate profits but even if they don’t do it and it will stay at 3% I don’t know if it’s an ‘era of inflation’. It could still be back to ~2% in a year or two if there’s no new war in the middle east. Now, looking at what’s happening in the middle east my bet is that there will be another war, the inflation will go up again (~10%?) and we’ll be stuck in this cycle until global economy splits and isn’t affected so much by local conflicts. You can already see this happening post war in Ukraine but it will take a decade or two. So I would say 1-2 years if manage to avoid another war, 10-20 if the current trend continues.
Yeah, the current era is already on the way out. Maybe a new one will begin, though. Even probably, at least for Gulf-reliant Europe, looking at how the Middle East is currently being mishandled.