my bet is: as long as we need to completely transition to renewable transport, because everything we eat, build and wear needs to be transported and most of us don’t work from home or study from home:
oil prices are high because that’s what putin can use as leverage against the developed world after his failed annexation of Ukraine and it’s clear he’d rather die than accept Ukraine is an independent country. Global warming makes a transition to renewable energy inescapable and even if putin died today and Russia opened the taps again, it would only slow down the transition.
But holy shit, it’s gonna be hard and expensive, it’s going to take decades and every populist politician of both left and right is going to fight it. My bet is 2 decades.
What do you think?
The inflation that started towards the end of the pandemic shutdowns is essentially over now in the U.S. according to the most widely used measures.
There’s a lot of ways economists measure inflation. That chart is for all items. Policy makers usually use “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy. Food and energy prices are obviously important to individuals but they’re volatile and can add a lot of noise. (Like gas prices go up and down all the time without it meaning the Federal Reserve needs to change long term policy.)
Another caveat is that shelter lags behind by about 6 months just because of (a) how it’s measured and (b) people sign leases once or twice a year. So, if the main reason inflation is up or down is housing, it could be misleading about actual inflation right now.
Anything between 1% and 3% with low unemployment is fine and that’s where the U.S. is now. Other countries may not be there yet but this is nothing like the late 70’s and early 80’s.
If prices don’t decrease and wages don’t increase (as a median, not average), inflation “ending” makes no difference.
Who gives a fuck it inflation “is over” if I’m still paying more for the same shit and making the same amount of money?