Title is a little sensational but this is a cool project for non-technical folks who may need a mini-internet or data archive for a wide variety of reasons:
“PrepperDisk is a mini internet box that comes preloaded with offline backups of Wikipedia, street maps, survivalist information, 90,000 WikiHow guides, iFixit repair guides, government website backups (including FEMA guides and National Institutes of Health backups), TED Talks about farming and survivalism, 60,000 ebooks and various other content. It’s part external hard drive, part local hotspot antenna—the box runs on a Raspberry Pi that allows up to 20 devices to connect to it over wifi or wired connections, and can store and run additional content that users store on it. It doesn’t store a lot of content (either 256GB or 512GB), but what makes it different from buying any external hard drive is that it comes preloaded with content for the apocalypse.”
My problem with preppers is the over estimating on whether they’ll be in a position that these skills will have any effect, and the under valuing on steps we could just take to not have this future in the first place.
Like, you’ll need a farm right off the bat, or your first steps in any guider are how to violently take somebody else’s land. Followed by step two, keeping that land from other humans who don’t want to die.
Instead of prepping, become nomadic scroungers or live in a fricking farming commune in the first place. Basically descend a couple levels of societal development and you’ll already be self sufficient and ready. Like the Amish.
Or, you know, voting for politicians who listen to scientists.
Anything beyond being self sufficient for a month is overkill in my opinion.
Most preppers are of the “fuck society, I am the most important part of it” mentality, whether they’re aware of it or not.
When shit hits the fan and the urban civilizations collapse, it’s the old nomads that’ll survive (if they haven’t been killed off entirely by then)
The Amish are not self-sufficient. They are self-reliant. And it takes a minimum of 50 families for them to have a functioning community. What you’re describing is more of a frontiersman.
I feel like the one thing preppers miss the necessity of often is social skills. If you’re adept at befriending people and getting them to work together you’re all going to be better off. We’re all humans and working together is how we made what we have.
Eh we’re already seeing massive drops in skilled labor. The political environment will create food scarcity in 12 months. It’s already paying to be able to fix your home and car. Can’t imagine what next year will bring. Probably unemployment for many.
Heading right for Soviet resource scarcity.
I love seeing all the tacticool “operators” with their tricked out ARs, bulletproof vests and helmets, flexicuffs, and other shit but look like they get gassed slowly ascending the stairs from their mother’s basement. Rule #1 in the zombie apocalypse is Cardio.
Also society isn’t going to collapse overnight. If it does it will be a slow crawl until going full Gravy Seal is warranted. They need to survive until then.
That’s the other thing. Society is more likely not to collapse, but just adapt. Half your country could be wiped out by a nuke. If the capitol was taken out then you’re just entering government less warzone like Darfur. They still have trade etc in those regions. Eventually surviving external government exert influence and prop up their preferred government.
Or the capitol survives, the housing market crashes, everybody becomes poor, disgruntled young guys force through a vote for a strong daddy to lead them through this tough time.
The movie “the road” is horrible but unlikely. The Last of Us military city states is more probable. Or just reading a history book.
Not if it goes down like you expect it to.
In my experience, the real problems are the ones you weren’t planning for.
Even if we don’t end up nuking each other like we thought we would in the 60s-90s, we could still get a massive asteroid / comet strike with less than a week’s notice. That innocent looking star 23 light years away could have collapsed 22.99 years ago and zap us with a gamma ray burst next week.
More likely: something we don’t even know about comes along and makes life far more challenging than it has been for 100,000 years.
Humans are very bad at intuitively grasping very large and very small numbers, and that includes very small probabilities. The odds of a civilization-ending asteroid or comet hitting Earth in the next century is minuscule. Especially with the “not seeing it until it’s a week away” condition, we’ve come a very long way when it comes to mapping near-Earth asteroids and there just aren’t any places for them to hide any more. Especially not once Vera C. Rubin goes online.
A star that’s capable of producing a gamma ray burst is not “innocent-looking”, it’s actually very obvious. There are none that are that close to us. They’d also need to have a very precisely aimed axis to hit us, gamma ray bursts look so bright in part because their “beam” is so narrow.
Absolutely, based on the information we have today.
That dark swarm of asteroids that was launched out of the Magellanic Cloud 8 billion years ago that’s coming on a direct collision course against the Milky Way rotation - yeah, we don’t know about that one.
The thing about our probabilities of events that haven’t happened yet to leave a scar that we can notice on the surface of the Earth, we haven’t been very good at observing the sky except for the last 100 years or so, really 50. So, we’re learning more and more about things and newly discovered hazards don’t lower the probability of occurrence…
That we know of the mechanism that produced the burst. What we don’t know about that star is the super Jupiters orbiting it in a quasi stable multi-body arrangement that could collapse a bunch of mass into the star and turn it from Jekyll to Hyde under your bed ASAP.
You guys are prepping for Jupiter to become a second sun? That’s hard fucking core man!
Spoiler alert: pretty sure that was the big finish to Clarke’s 2010.
Space is BIG. Even if your asteroid idea happened, I can confidently say it won’t hit us, because the numbers are so much in favor of them not. Earth is a ridiculously small target compared to the space in the solar system, and we have Jupiter that throws everything out and protects us. It’s not happening, and even if it did it’ll likely hit water, and even if it hits land it likely won’t be near you.
Prepare for a car accident. Don’t prepare for asteroid impact. Youre wasting your time and money in the later and, though the former is relatively unlikely to be needed, it’s actually realistic that it may happen to you. Until you’re prepared for that, for a house fire, for a break in, for a medical emergency, and for anything else that’s relatively likely, you’re wasting your resources.
Andromeda is going to hit the Milky way, and it likely won’t do anything to most earth-like planets because the densities of both (all) galaxies are so low.
Individual low odds things don’t happen frequently, but collectively they happen a lot more often because there are so many low odds things with potential to happen.
The Holocene may only run 12,000 years - it looks like the Anthropocene is the most likely end for it, but life has been evolving on Earth for 3.5(ish) billion years, making the Holocene just 0.00034% of that period, 1/300,000th in round numbers.
Right. You have to dream up counterfactual fantasies in order for it to be a problem.
And you don’t need to worry about it, because as I said, the human mind is very bad at intuitively grasping the implications of very large or very small numbers.
Go ahead and actually calculate what risk there might be from something like this. How much mass do those asteroids have? What’s their collective cross-section, and how does that compare to the volume of space they’d be passing through? How big is Earth in comparison?
I’m betting the odds will still be microscopic. I feel safe betting that because we have real world evidence that bodies in our solar system don’t frequently get hit by ghost asteroids from the Magellanic Cloud (there’s an 80’s sci-fi movie title for you). Large impacts are few and far between these days,
Once again, sure, you could imagine that ordinary stars sometimes miraculously pop like balloons to spray us with liquid death.
If you want it to actually be a worrying scenario, though, it needs to be backed up with some kind of evidence or theory that makes it plausible. And again, we don’t actually see frequent gamma ray bursts in reality, so whatever mechanism you propose needs to be rare for it to fit the data.
I don’t worry about it, because it is a very small number and my life is likely very short by comparison, but… the very large number of potential sites for life to evolve in the visible universe still yields zero evidence of a technological “WE ARE HERE” sign that we can understand. That implies that either: A) we really are the center of the universe, first to develop technology or B) such developments of energy manipulating technology are an exceedingly small number rare for… reasons that we do not yet understand. And of course C) those of us who have seen irrefutable proof of alien technology are hiding it from the rest of us for… reasons.
Of the possibilities, I find A) much less likely than B), and C) to be impossibly absurd - people just aren’t that good at keeping secrets for long periods of time.
You’re analyzing a risk we could imagine, what you can’t do is analyze a risk we haven’t imagined yet. Looking at the vastness of the Universe and the rate at which our theories about how it all works evolve, I find it far more likely that we haven’t imagined more of actual reality than we have.
Not miraculously, we know some of the causes that make this happen. What we don’t know is all of the causes or all of the existing conditions that will precede such events.
When such event does “miraculously” happen we may be able to learn from observation what likely triggered it and then it won’t be “miraculous” anymore, it will have an analyzable probability - with a rather large window of uncertainty.
Until such an event kills us all, or at least tanks civilization. We won’t likely learn much from that one.
I think you’re overlooking a more likely (and more reasonable) approach preppers take; become skilled in various survival-oriented skills and then if things go south you can go to one of those farms and offer to help out in exchange for some of the food. The lone rambo raider types aren’t going to last long, humans are social animals that do best in tribes and for the most part want to form tribes.
Preemptively apocalypsing yourself by forcing yourself to live in some sort of self-sufficient compound right now isn’t reasonable for most people, but having some plans and resources in your back pocket in case of disaster is not at all unreasonable.
If nothing else, it makes camping more fun and lets you ride out a power outage or local disaster in style.
That’s why Mad Max has a crew.
They feel helpless to change the current course of events, and they’re not far wrong as individuals.
What they also underestimate is how quickly they’re gonna die when somebody decides they should after TSHTF. All the prepping in the world isn’t gonna make living after a 20MT strike 20 miles away any fun at all. Living out in the boonies growing your own food? Whatever arsenal you have to protect it, all it takes is a band of yahoos with twice your numbers and firepower and your toast becomes their toast.
Surprisingly difficult to do… we had a farming commune as neighbors for a couple of years, they never did reach food self sufficiency with 80 acres of fertile land and 16 people to work it. The Amish come close to making it work, but any Amish I have ever gotten to know tend to cheat, a lot.
Yeah, they trust the “scientists” even less than you trust their politicians - and they’re not 100% wrong, just mostly wrong.
Don’t get me wrong: true science is the way to make progress, and we have built a lot on science in the past 200 years or so, but we have also got a lot of bought and paid for business tools running around in lab coats fooling the science community that they are just like them.
Disasters of my lifetime have been hurricanes. If you can hunker down for the storm and retain your ability to drive out of the devastation zone after the roads are cleared (usually in a couple of days), you’re good. Keep enough gas to run the generators until you can get more gas, keep enough food to last until you can get to a source of more. I’ve never had to abandon home, even with some pretty hard direct hits, but when it’s bad enough that’s what you do. Go somewhere that hasn’t been whacked.
If we politically screw up the whole planet, that’s harder to prep for than a mild nuclear winter.
The overlap between climate crisis deniers and preppers is so large it‘s truly baffling. If you ask me most of them are just hobbyists who act a little too seriously about their little passion. It‘s a lot of make believe and very little obtaining practical skills.
I went down the rabbit hole on YouTube a bit and man, a lot of them seem to want the shit to hit the fan. These are people who absolutely lay down to go to sleep at night and fantasize about getting to bug out.
In other words, they correctly realize that society as it exists sucks, but are too deep into right-wing propaganda to consider that less drastic measures than a collapse (such as voting for socialist policies) could fix it.
Reminds me of a billionaire who went “woke” because he did the research and realized it’s far far far more effective to just start building farms around his home city then building a fancy bunker for him to die in. Actually building public infrastructure with redundancy.