Note I’m keying this in from memory from the first time I wrote it up after analysis of my crazy board (📌🧶📇) and putting it to words.

Trump took an oath of office in 2017 and then participated in an attempted coup in 2021, which creates an interaction with the 14th amendment (section 3, I think) of the Constitution of the United States.

Now, the US Supreme Court said (in dicta, so not fully binding) that 14-3 was not self enforcing, so it was up to congress to legislate action to enforce this, and the MAGA GOP controlled enough of congress to prevent such legislation from passing.

But that doesn’t exonerate Trump. He’s still an insurrectionist (and I think qualifies in the slim threshold that is the Constitutional definition of treason). He’s still unqualified to be POTUS. Only those with the authority to enforce the law are actively not doing so. Much the way a Federalist-Society–controlled SCOTUS handed the US Presidency to George W. Bush in 2000, it is also handing Trump the Presidency in 2024.

Just because the police decided not to arrest a killer doesn’t make him any less of a killer (or hos victims any less dead) so it is with Trump.

So why does it matter now, if it didn’t in 2001?

Firstly, because Trump plans on replacing a whole lot of career federal employees with MAGA loyalists as a means to speed the implementation of his agenda (which will look a lot like the 2025 Mandate For Leadership developed by the Heritage Foundation (aka Project 2025 ). And knowing Trump intends to undo their life’s work, they might resist, and his illegitimacy as a usurper might help justify any action they take.

And then secondly there’s the military. Trump’s agenda includes forcing the retirement of some top brass to replace them with officers more willing to blindly obey Dear Leader in the execution of illegal orders, such as attacking protests or raiding American towns that are too blue for the administration.

And that illegitimacy will be useful when it becomes super important to not merely refuse to obey illegal orders, but to assure no one else does either.

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There’s one other tangential factor to mention: SCOTUS asserted (so far, successfully so) that Amendment 14-3 requires congressional action to enforce. If this works, they might be able to do the same to 14-1.

That’s the birthright citizenship clause, which Trump is eager to vanish from the Constitution of the United States. So if the court is keen to see Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda move forward, that may prove that in fact the US Supreme Court is a higher authority than the Constitution, or at least can neuter it with creative interpretation.

Interesting times in America.